Letter no. 125

Valuation of credit card businesses implies that the market believes that (a) current return ratios are sustainable over the longer term, and/or (b) the runway for growth is long given India’s imminent digitisation of the economy. We believe that the markets may be overestimating both.

In today’s moneycontrol article, we write that rising bad loans will likely cap return ratios in the shorter term, and upon implementation of a full India stack, the total addressable market for credit cards may not be as large as perceived by markets.

Read here: https://tinyurl.com/5yuczsy6

Our previous articles can be found here:  https://www.buoyantcap.com/our-memos/

Disclaimer:

Information in this letter is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as investment, tax or legal advice, or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to make investments with Buoyant Capital. Prospective investors should rely solely on the Disclosure Document filed with SEBI. Any description involving investment examples, statistical analysis or investment strategies is provided for illustration purposes only – and will not apply in all situations and may be changed at the discretion of the principal officer. Certain information has been provided and/or based on third-party sources and although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified; the investment managers make no express warranty as to its completeness or accuracy, nor can it accept responsibility for errors appearing herein