Our Memos
April 25, 2023 2023-05-16 12:32Our Memos
Our Memos
Privileging the hypothesis
Letter no. 126 A real-time criminal investigation is no fun (most leads go nowhere), whereas, with hindsight bias, it …
Credit Cards
Letter no. 125 Valuation of credit card businesses implies that the market believes that (a) current return ratios are …
Junk bonds
Letter no. 124 While Indian equities are celebrating the last of Fed rate hikes, the long-forgotten High Yield (junk) …
Network effects
Letter no. 123 In economics, the network effect refers to the phenomenon where the value of the product or …
Power sector ailments, and the new Electricity Act
Letter #122 Strong power demand (higher than GDP growth in 2 of the past 3 years) and possible enactment of …
Crude, forex, rates and equity markets
Letter no # 121 Crude oil is down 12% (1m) and 33% since Jun-22. India imports 87% of its …
Anatomy of rate hike cycles: all may not be hunky dory
Letter # 120 Equity markets, worldwide, have rallied since the last Fed rates decision on 22nd March – on …
US Generics: time for a cyclical upturn?
Letter # 119 A 1984 Act, an audacious 2002 Para IV filing, and Indian Pharma was never the same …
What happened to SVB, cannot happen to banks in India
Letter # 118 It is an uncharacteristically strong statement to make, but I am unequivocally convinced: SVB-like situation cannot …
Balancing act
Letter # 117 A stock declines 90% once, 50% at another time, and over 20% on multiple occasions. Focus …
Relativity trap
Letter # 116 “Most people do not know what they want unless they see things in context”. It is …
Viewing markets in dynamic equilibrium
Letter #115 We have all been told that “stock markets are a slave to earnings.” While the long-term relationship …
Headlines hide the investors’ pain
Letter # 114 In today’s ET article, we note that despite flattish headline indices over the past year, investors …
Banking sector in four simplified cycles
Letter # 113 In today’s ET article, we explain investing in India’s banking sector in four simple cycles – …
The INR34 trillion find – lithium, India and EVs
Letter # 112 In today’s ET article, we analyse the potential impact of the recently announced lithium deposit find …
Budget simplified and historical market reaction
Letter #111 In today’s ET article, we present a simplified approach to comprehending the Indian Budget; i.e., Revenue deficit, …
The new intelligent investor: leveraging AI for higher returns
Letter # 110 The article discusses the potential impact of the artificial intelligence platform ChatGPT on the field of investing. …
Small misconceptions, large implications
Letter # 109 “We only use 10% of our brains, what if we could use 100%?” Many movies like …
As we enter CY2023
Letter # 108 CY2022 will mark the seventh consecutive year of gains for the Sensex (assuming we end the …
Genetics & Mimetics: why investors miss PSB-like rallies
Letter # 107 Nifty PSU Banks Index is up 60% in the past year and 40% in the past …
Privileging the hypothesis
Letter no. 126 A real-time criminal investigation is no fun (most leads go nowhere), whereas, with hindsight bias, it …
Privileging the hypothesis
Letter no. 126 A real-time criminal investigation is no fun (most leads go nowhere), whereas, with hindsight bias, it …
