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Privileging the hypothesis

letter 125

Privileging the hypothesis

Letter no. 126


A real-time criminal investigation is no fun (most leads go nowhere), whereas, with hindsight bias, it makes for an awesome book or a movie. However, there exists a concept within any investigation where all participants become overly focused on a singular theory. That often botches the entire investigation. That fallacy is called ‘privileging the hypothesis’.


Markets today seem to falling for the same. India is a great story over the long term, but the road to the long term could still prove tumultuous. In today’s moneycontrol article, we point out the four things that can play spoil-sport. In the end, it may amount to nothing after all. But regardless, it is worth keeping one eye out so as not to “privilege the hypothesis”.


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